Indonesia Loses as U.S. Wins Big in Trade Deals
“Nobody leaves a negotiation happy” is a simple phrase often used to describe how a fair outcome typically requires both sides to give up or compromise something they initially wanted.
However, the latest Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) signed on 19th February 2026 significantly favors the United States while placing Indonesia in a lower economic position, particularly in terms of market access and trade leverage.
It is worth noting that the U.S. Supreme Court recently invalidated President Trump’s tariffs under the emergency powers statute IEEPA, which prompted the U.S. government to introduce a new 10% import tax under Section 122.
Under Section 122, tariffs are capped at maximum 15% and can only be imposed for 150 days, requiring congressional approval to remain in effect longer.
Furthermore, the U.S. administration is likely to explore other legal channels to impose tariffs, although this creates greater uncertainty with trading partners.
Nevertheless, the base case remains that the majority of the trade commitments signed between the United States and Indonesia will be enforced, with only few possible adjustments once domestic legal procedures are completed.